Posts from — March 2010

I am expecting the GBP to exceed its trend line and I would be looking …

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Many people believe that the financial markets are totally random. The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory that states the price of a market cannot be predicted. Economists have historically accepted the random walk hypothesis. Professor Burton G. Malkiel, of Princeton University was the first person to propose this idea.

Yet many people can make a living trading the financial markets, making money time and time again. So it often makes me wonder, if the markets were random how can they do that.

Have you ever wondered how they were doing it?

Notice The Regular Spacing In Red…

I’m Mike Haran and I’m a full time trader, and I believe that the financial markets are certainly not completely random and can move with the precision of a swiss watch. The markets may appear to be random, in fact they obey the laws of chaos, I have seen markets go into fribulation before they collapse, just like a human heart, the frequency doubles then the market collapses. The markets even appear to repeat moves in time with an amazing regularity.

If you can find the correct swing in time lets call it the master swing it is possible to predict the next swing in the market with amazing accuracy. Not only that but that swing length will repeat all the way through the wave structure. Sometimes running from high to high, high to low or low to high. The thing that makes the market difficult to trade is the knowing where the next swing will be projected from.

Some People Might Say That I’m Cherry Picking…

NON RANDOM MARKET BEHAVIOUR

The non random nature of the market is very well illustrated in this example of the GBPUSD on the daily chart. On the 7.1.2010 the GBPUSD made a low, this was then followed by a second low on the 22.1.2010. This distance in time was then copied and projected from either a low or high as this wave continued to decline.

You can see that each projection points has resulted in a short term reaction against the trend in each case. Using this time cycle it is possible to estimate where the next reversal in the GBPUSD should occur, the proposed dates would appear to be the 1st April 2010 or the 7th April 2010.

The cyclic nature of the markets and reoccurring repeating patterns would seem to indicate that far from being random, the markets do seem to behave in a structured way. This structure is then disturbed by seemingly chaotic activity where the markets will suddenly fracture and move rapidly in another direction seemingly at random. The markets are thought to be a non linear dynamic system composed of a trend component and highly random price element. However, in these random move repetitive patterns form which appear to offer a predictive analysis of future price movement. This is often referred to as pattern trading.

By Mike Haran

http://www.haranfx.com

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We have a potential top comming up on the USDJPY, 97.139 would be an ABCD pattern at 100%

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Firstly, sorry about the lack of updates, but I can only put them up when they occur and if the opportunity does not present itself then there is nothing to post.

Sorry this is a bit late, the turn actually came in at 5am.

My strategy is to buy any 50% pull back on the hour chart
I am anticipating a top on either the 30.3.2010 or the 1.4.2010

I am hoping that we will match the previous high or go slightly higher, as the market unfolds I will be in a better position to anticipate the actual area

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My previous prediction for the GBPUSD on the 17th March was potentially worth 200 points to my members!

I have a turn for the 22nd which falls on Monday, if you shorted the GBPUSD, beware that you potentially should reverse the trade as potentially the low is now in. The chart shows a modified saw wave pattern, completing at the 2.618 level. Do not enter a trade late Friday, wait for Monday am(GMT)

The AUDUSD is in a range, and its forming a ABCD pattern at the moment,

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GBPUSD, the GBP has broken the top of the trend line, so the expectation is now to the upside, because the .618 level holding, my expectation is that this will possibly be the start of a new trend…

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Here is bonus for the members.

DJIA again I am seeing a sign of weakness at the top of the DJIA, pin candle formation. On the 10.3.2010 I have an equal time AB=CD pattern, so far we have failed to reach an AB=CD in price. This implys that the last leg up is weak…

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GBPUSD
The GBP is looking weak against the dollar, the fact that we have broken the previous high “Critical Level” would lead me to believe that we are still in a downward correction, failure to break up from the current level would open up the level indicated by the yellow bar. I have the…

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The AUDUSD failed to exceed the previous high that it set in October, it then declined setting a lower low, potentially this is a reversal signal. You can also see that the last leg up put in an abcd pattern which failed so far to give AB=CD on the 13.3.2010 we would have an AB=CD in time, if the AUD fails to perform an ab=cd pattern by this time I would be bearish…..

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