Category — Forex Trading Journal

We are at a point where we might see a correction in the AUDUSD, the levels that I will be interested in are 0.89221 and 0.90347, as always use a stop and be aware that these patterns can fail. I don’t know which level will be the one it turns on so as always in trading you are in effect making an educated guess. When you are wrong your stops will save you from financial ruin.

Please see the diagram below (Click to enlarge. The diagram will open up in flickr.com, then click on the “allsizes” icon.)

Errata, GBPJPY not GBPUSD!

Thanks DAZZA for bringing this to my attention.

I typed GBPUSD and I meant GBPJPY, sorry guys  things get a little hectic around here sometimes.

Here is the post again and the new diagram.

I have a turn in time coming up on the GBPJPY today or tommorrow, as it stands this evening the .886 level was touched, and not breached as of yet. As always you can wait for the market to take out todays bar high, or you can wait for the first wave in the sequence to form, and seek to trade  a pull back which will always come. I was in at the .886 level at 148.618 with a 30 pip stop, target for this trade is the about 158.980, so the RR is good.

Please click below diagram (it will open up in another browser window, click “all sizes” to enlarge):-

I am not a great fan of just fib ratios, so I would want to see some confirmation that this level will hold. So far we have had 1.06241 as our lowest low. What would make me think that a bottom was in would be a break of the high at 1.09301. What we have at the moment is some strong support. A couple of time projections crop up at 20.09.2009 and 24.12.2009. I use time and price in combination and look for key levels in price and in time. Time like price can be estimated in advance as an additional guide. The .618 level in price occurs close to a time projection, this does not mean it will spin on its heels here, and go up, what it does mean is that you should be aware, that a potential turn might be close.

Please click below diagram (it will open up in another browser window, click “all sizes” to enlarge):-

But I do have an ultimate hard stop and so should you.

EURGBP is showing a high degree of clustering at 0.90087-0.90421, the internal wave structure does not look like we are quite ready to put a top in yet, however we are close.

Please click below diagram (it will open up in another browser window, click “all sizes” to enlarge):-

A decline below 0.85398 would indicate that we have a top in place at 0.86768, the target for this trade would be 0.81975 and the termination point is 0.81975 around the 4th October 2009 if this fractal form plays out as hoped. I have entered the trade at 0.86249 which was the .618 retrace of the last swing, I have placed my stop just above the last high at 0.86768. The risk on this trade is 50 points, if you wait for the confirmation, which has a higher degree of success you risk would be 100 points. I prefer to take trades with a lower risk and a higher probability of failure, but thats just my personality type.The potential profit target is 351 points so which ever way you play this trade the risk to reward is good.

Check out the diagram below, (click “All Sizes” to enlarge).

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – TRI STAR CANDLE STICK

•Direction:Bearish
•Type:Reversal
•Reliability:Moderate

Mike Haran, a full time trader and co-founder of www.fxsignaltrader.com, is very concerned with what is happening in the financial markets at the moment.

“I am very concerned at the moment, the DOW is looking like a collapse is very close.” After such a long move up, perhaps one of the greatest since records began, we are seeing a great deal of weakness and indecision.”
“I am a technical trader, everything is shown in the price action and price is the best indicator there is. Three Doji candle sticks in a row is something every trader loves especially on the day chart. This is what is happening on the DOW at the moment. It has also stopped at the .886fib level of the last swing. What I am expecting is a massive correction, possibly of the order of 2000 points or more. The DOW has made one of the longest moves up since records began from any bear crash. Strong reactions in any market provoke equally strong corrections. This market is no different, what I expect is a massive correction, maybe as much as 89% of the move up. If this breaks and I know it will, expect a lot of pain. I have no idea what the news to trigger this event will be. I am not clairvoyant or a prophet, I am just a student of the markets. A confirmation would be a long red candle tomorrow, 10th June 200; that would certainly clarify that a top was indeed formed. I like to predict the markets, but I trade according to very strict rules, a trader must trade what is in front of him, not what he believes. I use my own signals to generate a return of about 20% per month, trading nine currency pairs. Consistent results produce steady profit and that is what every trader desires.”

To see how Mike trades just go to www.fxsignaltrader.com

TRI STAR DOJI DEFINITION

After an established bull trend, three doji’s (open and close at identical price) occur on three consecutive trading days.

After a long up-trending market the appearance of three dojis suggests a great deal of indecision about the future direction of the market. Such signs of indecision often precede reversals.

The first doji day reveals that the market is indecisive after a long up trend. The second doji day further emphasizes market uncertainty; by the third doji day longs have clearly lost momentum and complete control of the market. Candlestick analysts will look for bearish moves in the following days.

The Bearish Tri Star pattern is very rare, but when it occurs it has significant top reversal pattern. A fourth day confirmation in the form of a large red candlestick is recommended to show that the actual up trend has reversed.

Please Click To Enlarge Image

Press Release: BRITISH INVENTOR CRACKS THE CURRENCY MARKETS

click on the above link