Mike's Forex Trading Soapbox

GBPUSD potential reversal in time 24th Dec price level 1.59300 hit. Entry with a 30 point stop, next turn 3.1.2010 possible 400 pointer+

Have a very Happy Xmas and an even better New Year All!!!

GBPUSD 522 POINTS
As analysed the GBPUSD decline was correctly anticipated. The 9.12.2009 is the next possible turn date, price level of 1.61983 or1.61190 are definately worth watching for a reversal.

All the best

Mike

I have a cluster of ratios that would make a top in this area a high possibility, we also have a ABCD pattern that would nicely finish off this move. My two turns in time are the 6.12.2009 and the 21.12.2009

You could get a 78% retrace or a 61.8 %, as the wave progresses it will tell you.

Hi Gang,

I have a turn coming up in time for the EURUSD, but please be aware that a day late or early is more than possible. Two levels that are looking interesting are 1.51490 and 1.52398.

When you are right on the price, the market should collapse within 20-30 pips. If it sits and doodles about, it could be the next level up. You don’t need to set big stops, you just have to know when to sell and when to buy. Tommorrow is non farm payroll, certainly we have the chance to see some action there. If you are long the Euro, be aware that there might be a ceiling above you.

Failure of the EUR to close above 1.51490 and a decline below 1.48255 would be a good signal to get short on a retrace up for me.

Best Regards,

Mike Haran

A decline below 1.66238 and then a failure to break the high of 1.67212 today would suggest that the turn for the GBPUSD is in effect a day early having hit the .707 retrace of the ABCD move down as shown on the previous post. My next turn in time is forecast to be 10.12.2009 which should be a low. If the market breaks the high at 1.67212, then the next level forcast in the earlier post should be the top. Turns in time are very difficult, so I tend to use price levels as a confirmation. A time turn can be a day out.

The first profit objective for the GBPUSD has been hit, the turn in time I had set for the 4.12.2009 may be a turn, but I have a data points missing so in effect I have a blind period in time. If you are in this trade you will have 227 points of profit roughly . I would bring up your stop to protect that profit.

Regards,

Mike Haran

As suggested the GBP has advanced against the USD, I am now looking at the 4th of December as my turn date in time. If this correction plays out as a simple ABCD as it is looking then the correction level indicated is 1.66985 which would fit with the 70.7 retrace of the complete ABCD pattern downwards.

I am only interested in the price levels as we approach the suggested turn in time.

Hi All,

The GBPUSD formed a ABCD pattern at the 110% level on Friday and rallied up, this was one day short of my prediction for a turn in time as well. As the markets don’t trade on Saturday I took Fridays level to be the one at 110% of AB.

We now have the potential for a move up until around the 4th of December. The three levels I will be interested in are 1.66441,1.66976,1.67460 on or around the 4th of December

I promise you that this will be the last one tonight!!!

Regards,

Mike Haran

Hi All,

The .78 level failed to hold the market, and we did go lower to 162% of the AB leg. I was up for the fall, a little bit sad that my predicted level had failed, but as a trader I know that all my predictions are only predictions NOT FACT until after the event. I cover a lot of how to predict these levels in my course. What this means now is that we are in for a potential ABCD correction upwards, or some form of complex correction going sideways. I have put some date of where to expect a turn in time. If the market does what it often does, we could see a retrace upto one of these levels:
146.181,147.80,150.189. I would expect that correction to be over on or around the 6th of December, so only get interested in these levels as the time approaches. The next move after that could be a down move to around 131.79 or 128.36, again I am interested in these levels close to the 19th of December 2009.

The correction will either be a complex wave form that is hard to predict or a simple ABCD move that we might be able to catch the top to a couple of points. We have to see what the market throws to us next week.

Kind Regards,

Mike Haran

Hi All,

The USDJPY fell through the .786 level of the last swing. So where is it potentially going to stop, I have done some time calculations and I have a turn in time estimated for the 3rd December 2009, turns in time are like turns in price, you don’t know its right until after the fact. You can even wait a while to see if the level holds. Getting in late on these moves is not an issue as the moves are going to be big anyway.I have 2 levels on or around the 3rd of December to look at these are 84.189 and 83.740. They are valid from the 3rd onwards, if the market goes lower then the estimate before the time, then they are invalid levels and I ignore them. When these levels work the market will react within 20 points. If the market stalls at these levels like it did on the .786 level then its a bad sign. You want to see a reaction against them. I have also marked the last low the USD hit against the JPY back in April 1995 at 79.940, already the Bank of Japan are grumbling about the weak dollar.

Best Regards,

Mike HAran