Mike's Forex Trading Soapbox

Recently I have noticed that my target levels are being exceeded by relatively small amounts, around 30 pips or so. This is very frustrating for me and I am sure that many of you might also be getting stopped out. Therefore I decided to give you a small technique that may or may not already be obvious to you.

Usually when a level reacts as in the case of the GBPUSD, the move almost always gives a relatively small profit of 70-90 points. I would advise that those of you trading my analysis lock in 70-90 points on the first reaction – there is usually always the opportunity to place your stop at break even at some point in the trade.

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For those of you that want to use a more effective method of trading, I would like recommend my forthcoming ebook “Precision Trading”. In my book I will show you how to run a trade and also how to extract money from your tradea even when you only get a relatively small move.

Please lookout for more details regarding the launch of Precision Trading on the blog if you are interested.

As predicted using my analysis methods the GBPUSD reacted at my second predicted level on the day forecast, it exceeded the point by only 9 pips. The decline is not over yet, if this is just a correction then we will see the gbp decline to below 1.58222. If it a first wave in a new up trend then 1.60570 would be my target area to exit this trade, this will be based on the wave structure formed.

What I am seeing at the moment is impulse waves down, indicating that possibly we are in a move to break the previous low. As the wave progresses it will be easier to evaluate its potential reversal zone using the techniques taught in my course precision trading. If you missed the original trade entry, wait for the retrace up, which is certainly comming.

More analysis on this as the move progresses

Hi All,

Hope that you have all had a nice Xmas and New Year and that you have not put on too many pounds of the non cash variety. Sorry that I have not made too many updates lately.

The GBPUSD has a potential turn in time for either today or tommorrow. As of this moment there is a perfect abcd formation on the daily. There is also a .78% fib ratio of the last swing, sometimes these ratios work together to provide additional resistance. I also have a saw wave pattern on the lower time frame chart hitting a good ratio of 2.618 so there is a high probability that this is the top. I have sold at 1.62985 stop at 1.63345

Happy Trading!

GBPUSD potential reversal in time 24th Dec price level 1.59300 hit. Entry with a 30 point stop, next turn 3.1.2010 possible 400 pointer+

Have a very Happy Xmas and an even better New Year All!!!

GBPUSD 522 POINTS
As analysed the GBPUSD decline was correctly anticipated. The 9.12.2009 is the next possible turn date, price level of 1.61983 or1.61190 are definately worth watching for a reversal.

All the best

Mike

I have a cluster of ratios that would make a top in this area a high possibility, we also have a ABCD pattern that would nicely finish off this move. My two turns in time are the 6.12.2009 and the 21.12.2009

You could get a 78% retrace or a 61.8 %, as the wave progresses it will tell you.

Hi Gang,

I have a turn coming up in time for the EURUSD, but please be aware that a day late or early is more than possible. Two levels that are looking interesting are 1.51490 and 1.52398.

When you are right on the price, the market should collapse within 20-30 pips. If it sits and doodles about, it could be the next level up. You don’t need to set big stops, you just have to know when to sell and when to buy. Tommorrow is non farm payroll, certainly we have the chance to see some action there. If you are long the Euro, be aware that there might be a ceiling above you.

Failure of the EUR to close above 1.51490 and a decline below 1.48255 would be a good signal to get short on a retrace up for me.

Best Regards,

Mike Haran

A decline below 1.66238 and then a failure to break the high of 1.67212 today would suggest that the turn for the GBPUSD is in effect a day early having hit the .707 retrace of the ABCD move down as shown on the previous post. My next turn in time is forecast to be 10.12.2009 which should be a low. If the market breaks the high at 1.67212, then the next level forcast in the earlier post should be the top. Turns in time are very difficult, so I tend to use price levels as a confirmation. A time turn can be a day out.

The first profit objective for the GBPUSD has been hit, the turn in time I had set for the 4.12.2009 may be a turn, but I have a data points missing so in effect I have a blind period in time. If you are in this trade you will have 227 points of profit roughly . I would bring up your stop to protect that profit.

Regards,

Mike Haran

As suggested the GBP has advanced against the USD, I am now looking at the 4th of December as my turn date in time. If this correction plays out as a simple ABCD as it is looking then the correction level indicated is 1.66985 which would fit with the 70.7 retrace of the complete ABCD pattern downwards.

I am only interested in the price levels as we approach the suggested turn in time.