Technical Analysis — Mike Haran's Forex Club

FOREX PATTERN TRADING Can The Markets Be Anticipated?

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Many people believe that the financial markets are totally random. The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory that states the price of a market cannot be predicted. Economists have historically accepted the random walk hypothesis. Professor Burton G. Malkiel, of Princeton University was the first person to propose this idea.

Yet many people can make a living trading the financial markets, making money time and time again. So it often makes me wonder, if the markets were random how can they do that.

Have you ever wondered how they were doing it?

Notice The Regular Spacing In Red…

I’m Mike Haran and I’m a full time trader, and I believe that the financial markets are certainly not completely random and can move with the precision of a swiss watch. The markets may appear to be random, in fact they obey the laws of chaos, I have seen markets go into fribulation before they collapse, just like a human heart, the frequency doubles then the market collapses. The markets even appear to repeat moves in time with an amazing regularity.

If you can find the correct swing in time lets call it the master swing it is possible to predict the next swing in the market with amazing accuracy. Not only that but that swing length will repeat all the way through the wave structure. Sometimes running from high to high, high to low or low to high. The thing that makes the market difficult to trade is the knowing where the next swing will be projected from.

Some People Might Say That I’m Cherry Picking…

NON RANDOM MARKET BEHAVIOUR

The non random nature of the market is very well illustrated in this example of the GBPUSD on the daily chart. On the 7.1.2010 the GBPUSD made a low, this was then followed by a second low on the 22.1.2010. This distance in time was then copied and projected from either a low or high as this wave continued to decline.

You can see that each projection points has resulted in a short term reaction against the trend in each case. Using this time cycle it is possible to estimate where the next reversal in the GBPUSD should occur, the proposed dates would appear to be the 1st April 2010 or the 7th April 2010.

The cyclic nature of the markets and reoccurring repeating patterns would seem to indicate that far from being random, the markets do seem to behave in a structured way. This structure is then disturbed by seemingly chaotic activity where the markets will suddenly fracture and move rapidly in another direction seemingly at random. The markets are thought to be a non linear dynamic system composed of a trend component and highly random price element. However, in these random move repetitive patterns form which appear to offer a predictive analysis of future price movement. This is often referred to as pattern trading.

By Mike Haran

http://www.haranfx.com

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March 30, 2010 3 Comments

USDJPY Technical Analysis Potential 400 Point Top Position 25 March 2010

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We have a potential top comming up on the USDJPY, 97.139 would be an ABCD pattern at 100%

Continued in the members area
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March 25, 2010 No Comments

GBPUSD Potential 300 Point Swing 25032010

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Firstly, sorry about the lack of updates, but I can only put them up when they occur and if the opportunity does not present itself then there is nothing to post.

Sorry this is a bit late, the turn actually came in at 5am.

My strategy is to buy any 50% pull back on the hour chart
I am anticipating a top on either the 30.3.2010 or the 1.4.2010

I am hoping that we will match the previous high or go slightly higher, as the market unfolds I will be in a better position to anticipate the actual area

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March 25, 2010 No Comments

GBPUSD Broken Trendline 17032010 Urgent Update 19032010

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My previous prediction for the GBPUSD on the 17th March was potentially worth 200 points to my members!

I have a turn for the 22nd which falls on Monday, if you shorted the GBPUSD, beware that you potentially should reverse the trade as potentially the low is now in. The chart shows a modified saw wave pattern, completing at the 2.618 level. Do not enter a trade late Friday, wait for Monday am(GMT)

March 19, 2010 No Comments

AUDUSD Forming ABCD Pattern

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The AUDUSD is in a range, and its forming a ABCD pattern at the moment,

Continued in the members area
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March 17, 2010 No Comments

GBPUSD Broken Trend Line

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GBPUSD, the GBP has broken the top of the trend line, so the expectation is now to the upside, because the .618 level holding, my expectation is that this will possibly be the start of a new trend…

Continued in the members area
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March 17, 2010 No Comments

DOW JONES POTENTIAL Big Move

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Here is bonus for the members.

DJIA again I am seeing a sign of weakness at the top of the DJIA, pin candle formation. On the 10.3.2010 I have an equal time AB=CD pattern, so far we have failed to reach an AB=CD in price. This implys that the last leg up is weak…

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March 10, 2010 No Comments

AUDUSD GBPUSD Results of 3 Predictions

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Prediction – AUDUSD Potential Higher Push Prediction From 16/02/2010

See original post here

Prediction – GBPUSD POSS TURN 5-8 Feb 2010

See original post here

See interim update post here

Prediction – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBPUSD Xmas Reversal from 24th December 2009

See original post here

Recent Results Speak of Themselves!

I just wanted to update you on how my predictions have been going on the GBP, which is one of the currencies I trade.
If you had taken some of my predictions on the GBPUSD you would have made around 800 points with only three trades since Christmas.

If you traded the DOW you would have netted about 880 points on that move alone. So what about the future, how will you improve your trading in the future. If you are serious and really want to be able to make money trading you have to know when to buy at the bottom and sell at the tops.

Money is made in trading by getting in at the tops or bottoms or as close as you can and selling or buying. You don’t always have to get in at the very top or bottom, you can always wait for you analysis to allow show you where these positions are then look for a retrace back to your predicted level.

If you don’t have a way to do that then, how will you make money in trading? Many traders that have seen what I do are amazed, no one showed them such radical ways to trade. What I learned I did the hard way, in fact I threw most of my books on trading away, because they simply do not work.

80% of people that lose trading do so because what they are doing is simply wrong, that and the fact that some brokers will allow you to open accounts with $25. You might as well write the broker a check and save yourself the frustration of bothering to trade. You will lose that money 100% sure on that.

Many of the people that I discuss trading with make all the mistake I made. Good traders are not born they are made. The ability to trade like I do can be learned, it’s not magic. One of the reasons I made my course on trading was to help out a friend who kept asking me to teach him. When I started my blog, other people saw that I was not some pretender making calls on a market that had already moved. I was making all my calls before the moves happened and I was confident enough to make those calls public.

Success in life, is earned through hard work. no matter what the advertising says, no one can trade from day one and become a successful trader. All the traders I know that are any good, have blown at least three accounts. Some of these accounts have been in excess of six figures.

Knowledge is the key to trading, you can walk the path yourself or you can follow in someones footsteps. knowing what I know now, I would rather have a guide then tread the path alone.

All the best

Mike

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February 24, 2010 1 Comment

AUDUSD Potential Higher Push

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This is currently sitting on an AB=CD at 100%, now there is the chance it will make a push higher, we are also sitting at the 0.9000 which is a significant level due to the fact that people often target triple zeros. I am scaling in on this trade, if we have not seen a decline by 10pm then I would consider waiting for the next level.

February 16, 2010 1 Comment

GBPUSD Analysis Taking Partial Profits

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Recently I have noticed that my target levels are being exceeded by relatively small amounts, around 30 pips or so. This is very frustrating for me and I am sure that many of you might also be getting stopped out. Therefore I decided to give you a small technique that may or may not already be obvious to you.

Usually when a level reacts as in the case of the GBPUSD, the move almost always gives a relatively small profit of 70-90 points. I would advise that those of you trading my analysis lock in 70-90 points on the first reaction – there is usually always the opportunity to place your stop at break even at some point in the trade.

News

For those of you that want to use a more effective method of trading, I would like recommend my forthcoming ebook “Precision Trading”. In my book I will show you how to run a trade and also how to extract money from your tradea even when you only get a relatively small move.

Please lookout for more details regarding the launch of Precision Trading on the blog if you are interested.

January 18, 2010 1 Comment